Whilst the French authorities have confirmed that provincial elections will be held at the end of June 2026, the situation in Kanaky New Caledonia calls for continued vigilance. This confirmation marks a pivotal milestone that must be welcomed: it is indeed essential that, following successive postponements, the democratic process finally resumes its rightful course. It is imperative to support the holding of the election by 28 June 2026 at the latest in order to restore stable institutional legitimacy and bring an end to a dangerous period of democratic uncertainty.

This return to the ballot box must put an end to a worrying drift by the French State since the last referendums. In recent months, the administering power has chosen to negotiate the country’s future through contested agreements — Bougival, Élysée-Oudinot — concluded with political representatives whose legitimacy had lapsed and without the legitimate political representative of the Kanak people, the Kanak and Socialist Liberation Front. This “closed-door” approach, involving interlocutors lacking a valid electoral mandate, has seriously undermined the integrity of the political dialogue. In accordance with the Constitutional Council’s decision of 6th November 2025, this election is the essential tool for guaranteeing the integrity of representation and reopening a credible space for discussion. Consequently, any discussions on the institutional future and the drafting of any new agreement can only take place after the June 2026 elections, with political representatives freshly endowed with unquestionable popular legitimacy who will be empowered to shape the country’s destiny.

This democratic renewal comes at a time when the archipelago is on the brink of a major systemic crisis. The current impasse is the direct result of a strategy of systematic ‘forcings’ pursued by the French state, in defiance of the country’s fundamental balances. The 2024 uprising must be analysed as the direct consequence of the breakdown of the principle of consensus: the plan to expand the electorate acted as the catalyst for a predictable crisis, transforming an orderly statutory transition into a phase of violent instability. The State’s institutional responsibility for triggering this crisis is established by its choice to prioritise constitutional change at the expense of social peace.

Since the 2024 uprising, official indicators confirm that Kanaky New Caledonia is undergoing an unprecedented structural breakdown. The 13.5% recession suffered in 2024 led to a brutal breakdown of the labour market, with the loss of 11,500 salaried jobs and employment services are now overwhelmed. This economic decline has turned into a humanitarian crisis for the most vulnerable populations, whose basic needs are no longer guaranteed.

This reality is reflected in the erosion of public services: the loss of medical staff and the deterioration of road transport links in Greater Nouméa – where fares have become prohibitive – are exacerbating inequalities at an alarming rate. This context is reinforcing the marginalisation of the Kanak and Oceanian populations, whose social and geographical exclusion is worsening by the day. At the same time, the criminal justice situation remains a cause for concern, with indigenous youth making up almost the entire overcrowded prison population, reflecting a crisis for which there is no longer a political response commensurate with the challenges

In this context, it is worth recalling that the decolonisation of Kanaky New Caledonia remains an inevitable process strictly governed by international law. This trajectory is sealed by the territory’s inclusion on the UN list of Non-Self-Governing Territories and by Title XV of the French Constitution, which recognises its irreversibility. The aspirations of the Kanak people for full sovereignty constitute the indisputable legal foundation of decolonisation. Consequently, any manoeuvre aimed at circumventing this objective — whether through security pressure or through negotiations with illegitimate elected representatives — constitutes a direct violation of the principles and provisions of international law

Reconstruction and dialogue require the French State to resume its position as an impartial partner. Everything that has been observed since 2024 must serve as a lesson for the future: unilateralism, the French State’s partiality, and its withdrawal from the decolonisation process through any manoeuvre are all major risk factors for the maintenance of a lasting peace. This can only be achieved through the recognition of the political rights of the indigenous people and the fulfilment of the commitments made. The June 2026 election must, without fail, confirm the decolonisation process and the path towards its full and complete realisation.

Finally, a solemn appeal is made for regional solidarity in Oceania, which builds on a long and courageous history of decolonisation in the Pacific. Making our region a true ‘Ocean of Peace’ requires, above all, bringing the colonial era to a close by respecting the sovereignty and self-determination of peoples. The destiny of Kanaky New Caledonia is inextricably linked to this quest for shared dignity. France must understand that its credibility and its place in this region do not depend on its material strength, but on its ability to respect the history of this great Ocean by honouring its decolonisation commitments before the sovereign and dignified nations of the Pacific.